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TSC Backa Topola vs Mladost Novi Sad — Super Liga 2018

TSC Backa Topola
TSC Backa Topola
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
8/21/2022Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 7TSC Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

TSC Backa Topola51%
×Draw26%
Mladost Novi Sad23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TSC Backa Topola
1.50
Mladost Novi Sad
0.91

TSC Backa Topola creates 65% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 20 away

creates per match

TSC Backa Topola
1.80
Mladost Novi Sad
0.65

allows per match

TSC Backa Topola
1.17
Mladost Novi Sad
1.20

finishing

TSC Backa Topola+0.00on par
Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSC Backa Topola ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

TSC Backa Topola or draw
77%
TSC Backa Topola or Mladost Novi Sad
74%
Draw or Mladost Novi Sad
49%

Winning margin

TSC Backa Topola wins by 2+
26%
Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

TSC Backa Topola 1+ goals
78%
TSC Backa Topola 2+ goals
44%
TSC Backa Topola 3+ goals
19%
Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
60%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
23%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

TSC Backa Topola (draw refunded)
69%
Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSC Backa Topola at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.17 · 128 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSC Backa Topola attack 1.80 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.50

Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.65 + TSC Backa Topola defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

TSC Backa Topola scores more
51%
level
26%
Mladost Novi Sad scores more
23%

TSC Backa Topola at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "TSC Backa Topola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TSC Backa Topola vs Mladost Novi Sad

TSC Backa Topola beat Mladost Novi Sad 3-0 in Super Liga on August 21, 2022.

The match was played at TSC Arena in Bačka Topola.