TSC Backa Topola 1–0 Mladost Lucani: Result & Stats

TSC Backa Topola

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mladost Lucani

9/14/2025

Super Liga · Round 8TSC Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

TSC Backa Topola53%

×Draw24%

Mladost Lucani23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TSC Backa TopolaExpected goals in this matchMladost Lucani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.01

TSC Backa Topola

1.69

Mladost Lucani

1.01

TSC Backa Topola creates 67% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 147 away

1.80

creates per match

0.86

1.17

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

TSC Backa Topola

1.80

Mladost Lucani

0.86

allows per match

TSC Backa Topola

1.17

Mladost Lucani

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TSC Backa Topola+0.00on par

Mladost Lucani+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSC Backa Topola ↓

Mladost Lucani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

TSC Backa Topola or draw

77%

TSC Backa Topola or Mladost Lucani

76%

Draw or Mladost Lucani

47%

Winning margin

TSC Backa Topola wins by 2+

29%

Mladost Lucani wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

TSC Backa Topola 1+ goals

82%

TSC Backa Topola 2+ goals

50%

TSC Backa Topola 3+ goals

24%

Mladost Lucani 1+ goals

64%

Mladost Lucani 2+ goals

27%

Mladost Lucani 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

TSC Backa Topola (draw refunded)

70%

Mladost Lucani (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSC Backa Topola at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.17 · 128 matches

Mladost Lucani away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSC Backa Topola attack 1.80 + Mladost Lucani defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.69

Mladost Lucani attack 0.86 + TSC Backa Topola defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

TSC Backa Topola scores more

53%

level

24%

Mladost Lucani scores more

23%

TSC Backa Topola at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "TSC Backa Topola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff