TSC Backa Topola 1–3 FK Crvena Zvezda

TSC Backa Topola

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

FK Crvena Zvezda

3/2/2024

Super Liga · Round 23TSC Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

TSC Backa Topola27%

×Draw23%

FK Crvena Zvezda51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TSC Backa TopolaExpected goals in this matchFK Crvena Zvezda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.85

TSC Backa Topola

1.28

FK Crvena Zvezda

1.85

FK Crvena Zvezda creates 45% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 142 away

1.80

creates per match

2.53

1.17

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

TSC Backa Topola

1.80

FK Crvena Zvezda

2.53

allows per match

TSC Backa Topola

1.17

FK Crvena Zvezda

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TSC Backa Topola+0.00on par

FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSC Backa Topola ↓

FK Crvena Zvezda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

TSC Backa Topola or draw

49%

TSC Backa Topola or FK Crvena Zvezda

77%

Draw or FK Crvena Zvezda

73%

Winning margin

TSC Backa Topola wins by 2+

11%

FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

TSC Backa Topola 1+ goals

72%

TSC Backa Topola 2+ goals

37%

TSC Backa Topola 3+ goals

14%

FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals

84%

FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals

55%

FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

TSC Backa Topola (draw refunded)

34%

FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSC Backa Topola at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.17 · 128 matches

FK Crvena Zvezda away — creates 2.53, concedes 0.76 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSC Backa Topola attack 1.80 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.28

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 2.53 + TSC Backa Topola defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

TSC Backa Topola scores more

27%

level

23%

FK Crvena Zvezda scores more

51%

FK Crvena Zvezda at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff