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FK Crvena Zvezda vs TSC Backa Topola — Super Liga 2026

FK Crvena Zvezda
FK Crvena Zvezda
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
TSC Backa Topola
TSC Backa Topola
8/9/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 4Stadion Rajko Mit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 125+ matches

FK Crvena Zvezda61%
×Draw20%
TSC Backa Topola18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Crvena Zvezda
2.11
TSC Backa Topola
1.05

FK Crvena Zvezda creates 101% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 125 away

creates per match

FK Crvena Zvezda
2.91
TSC Backa Topola
1.54

allows per match

FK Crvena Zvezda
0.57
TSC Backa Topola
1.31

finishing

FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par
TSC Backa Topola+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Crvena Zvezda ↓

TSC Backa Topola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

FK Crvena Zvezda or draw
82%
FK Crvena Zvezda or TSC Backa Topola
80%
Draw or TSC Backa Topola
39%

Winning margin

FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+
38%
TSC Backa Topola wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals
88%
FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals
62%
FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals
35%
TSC Backa Topola 1+ goals
65%
TSC Backa Topola 2+ goals
28%
TSC Backa Topola 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)
77%
TSC Backa Topola (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Crvena Zvezda at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.57 · 149 matches

TSC Backa Topola away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.31 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 2.91 + TSC Backa Topola defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 2.11

TSC Backa Topola attack 1.54 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

FK Crvena Zvezda scores more
61%
level
20%
TSC Backa Topola scores more
18%

FK Crvena Zvezda at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Crvena Zvezda vs TSC Backa Topola

FK Crvena Zvezda beat TSC Backa Topola 1-0 in Super Liga on August 9, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Rajko Mit in Belgrade.