Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tsarsko Selo vs Slavia Sofia — First League 2018

Tsarsko Selo
Tsarsko Selo
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Slavia Sofia
Slavia Sofia
6/8/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 25Tsarsko selo Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Tsarsko Selo37%
×Draw28%
Slavia Sofia35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tsarsko Selo
1.20
Slavia Sofia
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 138 away

creates per match

Tsarsko Selo
1.06
Slavia Sofia
1.00

allows per match

Tsarsko Selo
1.29
Slavia Sofia
1.34

finishing

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par
Slavia Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tsarsko Selo ↓

Slavia Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tsarsko Selo or draw
65%
Tsarsko Selo or Slavia Sofia
72%
Draw or Slavia Sofia
63%

Winning margin

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+
16%
Slavia Sofia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals
70%
Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals
34%
Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals
12%
Slavia Sofia 1+ goals
68%
Slavia Sofia 2+ goals
32%
Slavia Sofia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)
52%
Slavia Sofia (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tsarsko Selo at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Slavia Sofia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.34 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tsarsko Selo attack 1.06 + Slavia Sofia defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.20

Slavia Sofia attack 1.00 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tsarsko Selo scores more
37%
level
28%
Slavia Sofia scores more
35%

Tsarsko Selo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tsarsko Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tsarsko Selo vs Slavia Sofia

Slavia Sofia beat Tsarsko Selo 3-1 in First League on June 8, 2020.

The match was played at Tsarsko selo Complex in Sofia.