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Tsarsko Selo vs Septemvri Sofia — First League 2018

Tsarsko Selo
Tsarsko Selo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Septemvri Sofia
Septemvri Sofia
7/18/2020First LeagueFirst League · Finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Tsarsko Selo46%
×Draw26%
Septemvri Sofia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tsarsko Selo
1.46
Septemvri Sofia
1.09

Tsarsko Selo creates 34% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 73 away

creates per match

Tsarsko Selo
1.06
Septemvri Sofia
0.89

allows per match

Tsarsko Selo
1.29
Septemvri Sofia
1.85

finishing

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par
Septemvri Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tsarsko Selo ↓

Septemvri Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tsarsko Selo or draw
72%
Tsarsko Selo or Septemvri Sofia
74%
Draw or Septemvri Sofia
54%

Winning margin

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+
22%
Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals
77%
Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals
43%
Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals
18%
Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals
66%
Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals
30%
Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)
62%
Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tsarsko Selo at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Septemvri Sofia away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.85 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tsarsko Selo attack 1.06 + Septemvri Sofia defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.46

Septemvri Sofia attack 0.89 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tsarsko Selo scores more
46%
level
26%
Septemvri Sofia scores more
28%

Tsarsko Selo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tsarsko Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Tsarsko Selo 2–0 Septemvri Sofia

Tsarsko Selo beat Septemvri Sofia 2-0 in First League on July 18, 2020.