Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tsarsko Selo vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv — First League 2018

Tsarsko Selo
Tsarsko Selo
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
9/13/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 9Stadion Slavija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Tsarsko Selo35%
×Draw28%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tsarsko Selo
1.19
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 136 away

creates per match

Tsarsko Selo
1.06
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.15

allows per match

Tsarsko Selo
1.29
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.31

finishing

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tsarsko Selo ↓

Lokomotiv Plovdiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tsarsko Selo or draw
63%
Tsarsko Selo or Lokomotiv Plovdiv
72%
Draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv
65%

Winning margin

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+
15%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals
70%
Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals
33%
Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals
12%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1+ goals
70%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals
34%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)
49%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tsarsko Selo at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.31 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tsarsko Selo attack 1.06 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.19

Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack 1.15 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tsarsko Selo scores more
35%
level
28%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv scores more
37%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Lokomotiv Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Tsarsko Selo 2–3 Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Lokomotiv Plovdiv beat Tsarsko Selo 3-2 in First League on September 13, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Slavija in Sofia.