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Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Tsarsko Selo — First League 2018

Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tsarsko Selo
Tsarsko Selo
2/25/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 21Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv49%
×Draw28%
Tsarsko Selo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.35
Tsarsko Selo
0.81

Lokomotiv Plovdiv creates 67% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 48 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.34
Tsarsko Selo
0.69

allows per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.94
Tsarsko Selo
1.35

finishing

Lokomotiv Plovdiv+0.00on par
Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Plovdiv ↓

Tsarsko Selo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw
78%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv or Tsarsko Selo
72%
Draw or Tsarsko Selo
51%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins by 2+
24%
Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1+ goals
74%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals
39%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3+ goals
15%
Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals
56%
Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals
19%
Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Plovdiv (draw refunded)
69%
Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Plovdiv at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.94 · 135 matches

Tsarsko Selo away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.35 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack 1.34 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

Tsarsko Selo attack 0.69 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lokomotiv Plovdiv scores more
49%
level
28%
Tsarsko Selo scores more
22%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lokomotiv Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Tsarsko Selo

Lokomotiv Plovdiv beat Tsarsko Selo 1-0 in First League on February 25, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Plovdiv.