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Tsarsko Selo vs Levski Sofia — First League 2018

Tsarsko Selo
Tsarsko Selo
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia
8/5/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 4Stadion Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Tsarsko Selo28%
×Draw27%
Levski Sofia45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tsarsko Selo
1.00
Levski Sofia
1.35

Levski Sofia creates 35% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 138 away

creates per match

Tsarsko Selo
1.06
Levski Sofia
1.41

allows per match

Tsarsko Selo
1.29
Levski Sofia
0.93

finishing

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par
Levski Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tsarsko Selo ↓

Levski Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tsarsko Selo or draw
55%
Tsarsko Selo or Levski Sofia
73%
Draw or Levski Sofia
72%

Winning margin

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+
10%
Levski Sofia wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals
63%
Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals
26%
Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals
8%
Levski Sofia 1+ goals
74%
Levski Sofia 2+ goals
39%
Levski Sofia 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)
38%
Levski Sofia (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tsarsko Selo at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Levski Sofia away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.93 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tsarsko Selo attack 1.06 + Levski Sofia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.00

Levski Sofia attack 1.41 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tsarsko Selo scores more
28%
level
27%
Levski Sofia scores more
45%

Levski Sofia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Levski Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Tsarsko Selo 0–2 Levski Sofia

Levski Sofia beat Tsarsko Selo 2-0 in First League on August 5, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Vasil Levski in Sofia.