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Levski Sofia vs Tsarsko Selo — First League 2018

Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tsarsko Selo
Tsarsko Selo
8/14/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 4Vivacom Arena - Georgi Asparuhov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Levski Sofia56%
×Draw26%
Tsarsko Selo18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Sofia
1.50
Tsarsko Selo
0.72

Levski Sofia creates 108% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 48 away

creates per match

Levski Sofia
1.66
Tsarsko Selo
0.69

allows per match

Levski Sofia
0.76
Tsarsko Selo
1.35

finishing

Levski Sofia+0.00on par
Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Sofia ↓

Tsarsko Selo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Levski Sofia or draw
82%
Levski Sofia or Tsarsko Selo
74%
Draw or Tsarsko Selo
44%

Winning margin

Levski Sofia wins by 2+
29%
Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Levski Sofia 1+ goals
78%
Levski Sofia 2+ goals
44%
Levski Sofia 3+ goals
19%
Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals
51%
Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals
16%
Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Levski Sofia (draw refunded)
76%
Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Sofia at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.76 · 136 matches

Tsarsko Selo away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.35 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Sofia attack 1.66 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.50

Tsarsko Selo attack 0.69 + Levski Sofia defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Levski Sofia scores more
56%
level
26%
Tsarsko Selo scores more
18%

Levski Sofia at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Levski Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Levski Sofia 3–1 Tsarsko Selo

Levski Sofia beat Tsarsko Selo 3-1 in First League on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Vivacom Arena - Georgi Asparuhov in Sofia.