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Tsarsko Selo vs FK Minyor Pernik — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Tsarsko Selo
Tsarsko Selo
FT
4 – 1
FK Minyor Pernik
FK Minyor Pernik
6/26/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Tsarsko selo Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Tsarsko Selo63%
×Draw22%
FK Minyor Pernik16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tsarsko Selo
1.92
FK Minyor Pernik
0.83

Tsarsko Selo creates 131% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Tsarsko Selo
2.17
FK Minyor Pernik
0.83

allows per match

Tsarsko Selo
0.83
FK Minyor Pernik
1.67

finishing

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par
FK Minyor Pernik+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tsarsko Selo ↓

FK Minyor Pernik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tsarsko Selo or draw
84%
Tsarsko Selo or FK Minyor Pernik
78%
Draw or FK Minyor Pernik
37%

Winning margin

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+
38%
FK Minyor Pernik wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals
85%
Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals
57%
Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals
30%
FK Minyor Pernik 1+ goals
56%
FK Minyor Pernik 2+ goals
20%
FK Minyor Pernik 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)
80%
FK Minyor Pernik (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tsarsko Selo at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

FK Minyor Pernik away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tsarsko Selo attack 2.17 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.92

FK Minyor Pernik attack 0.83 + Tsarsko Selo defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Tsarsko Selo scores more
63%
level
22%
FK Minyor Pernik scores more
16%

Tsarsko Selo at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Tsarsko Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tsarsko Selo vs FK Minyor Pernik

Tsarsko Selo beat FK Minyor Pernik 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on June 26, 2021.

The match was played at Tsarsko selo Complex in Sofia.