Tsarsko Selo 2–1 CSKA Sofia: Result & Stats

Tsarsko Selo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

CSKA Sofia

4/18/2021

First League · Round 24Tsarsko selo Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Tsarsko Selo27%

×Draw28%

CSKA Sofia45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tsarsko SeloExpected goals in this matchCSKA Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.31

Tsarsko Selo

0.95

CSKA Sofia

1.31

CSKA Sofia creates 38% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 133 away

1.06

creates per match

1.32

1.29

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Tsarsko Selo

1.06

CSKA Sofia

1.32

allows per match

Tsarsko Selo

1.29

CSKA Sofia

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par

CSKA Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tsarsko Selo ↓

CSKA Sofia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tsarsko Selo or draw

55%

Tsarsko Selo or CSKA Sofia

72%

Draw or CSKA Sofia

73%

Winning margin

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+

10%

CSKA Sofia wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals

61%

Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals

25%

Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals

7%

CSKA Sofia 1+ goals

73%

CSKA Sofia 2+ goals

38%

CSKA Sofia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)

38%

CSKA Sofia (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tsarsko Selo at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

CSKA Sofia away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.83 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tsarsko Selo attack 1.06 + CSKA Sofia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.95

CSKA Sofia attack 1.32 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tsarsko Selo scores more

27%

level

28%

CSKA Sofia scores more

45%

CSKA Sofia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CSKA Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff