Tsarsko Selo 1–1 Cherno More Varna: Result & Stats

Tsarsko Selo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cherno More Varna

9/27/2019

First League · Round 11Tsarsko selo Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Tsarsko Selo33%

×Draw29%

Cherno More Varna38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tsarsko SeloExpected goals in this matchCherno More Varna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.18

Tsarsko Selo

1.08

Cherno More Varna

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 136 away

1.06

creates per match

1.06

1.29

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Tsarsko Selo

1.06

Cherno More Varna

1.06

allows per match

Tsarsko Selo

1.29

Cherno More Varna

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par

Cherno More Varna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tsarsko Selo ↓

Cherno More Varna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tsarsko Selo or draw

62%

Tsarsko Selo or Cherno More Varna

71%

Draw or Cherno More Varna

67%

Winning margin

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+

13%

Cherno More Varna wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals

66%

Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals

29%

Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals

10%

Cherno More Varna 1+ goals

69%

Cherno More Varna 2+ goals

33%

Cherno More Varna 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)

47%

Cherno More Varna (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tsarsko Selo at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Cherno More Varna away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.10 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tsarsko Selo attack 1.06 + Cherno More Varna defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Cherno More Varna attack 1.06 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tsarsko Selo scores more

33%

level

29%

Cherno More Varna scores more

38%

Cherno More Varna at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cherno More Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff