Cherno More Varna 3–3 Tsarsko Selo: Result & Stats

Cherno More Varna

FT

3 – 3

HT: 3 – 1

Tsarsko Selo

5/9/2021

First League · Conference League Play-off Group - 2Stadion Ticha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Cherno More Varna52%

×Draw28%

Tsarsko Selo20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cherno More VarnaExpected goals in this matchTsarsko Selo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.75

Cherno More Varna

1.38

Tsarsko Selo

0.75

Cherno More Varna creates 84% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 48 away

1.40

creates per match

0.69

0.81

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Cherno More Varna

1.40

Tsarsko Selo

0.69

allows per match

Cherno More Varna

0.81

Tsarsko Selo

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cherno More Varna+0.00on par

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cherno More Varna ↓

Tsarsko Selo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Cherno More Varna or draw

80%

Cherno More Varna or Tsarsko Selo

72%

Draw or Tsarsko Selo

48%

Winning margin

Cherno More Varna wins by 2+

25%

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Cherno More Varna 1+ goals

75%

Cherno More Varna 2+ goals

40%

Cherno More Varna 3+ goals

16%

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals

53%

Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals

17%

Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Cherno More Varna (draw refunded)

72%

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cherno More Varna at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.81 · 137 matches

Tsarsko Selo away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.35 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cherno More Varna attack 1.40 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.38

Tsarsko Selo attack 0.69 + Cherno More Varna defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cherno More Varna scores more

52%

level

28%

Tsarsko Selo scores more

20%

Cherno More Varna at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cherno More Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff