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Tsarsko Selo vs Botev Vratsa — First League 2018

Tsarsko Selo
Tsarsko Selo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa
8/6/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 3Tsarsko selo Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Tsarsko Selo46%
×Draw26%
Botev Vratsa28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tsarsko Selo
1.48
Botev Vratsa
1.11

Tsarsko Selo creates 33% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 136 away

creates per match

Tsarsko Selo
1.06
Botev Vratsa
0.93

allows per match

Tsarsko Selo
1.29
Botev Vratsa
1.89

finishing

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par
Botev Vratsa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tsarsko Selo ↓

Botev Vratsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tsarsko Selo or draw
72%
Tsarsko Selo or Botev Vratsa
74%
Draw or Botev Vratsa
54%

Winning margin

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+
23%
Botev Vratsa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals
77%
Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals
43%
Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals
19%
Botev Vratsa 1+ goals
67%
Botev Vratsa 2+ goals
30%
Botev Vratsa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)
62%
Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tsarsko Selo at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Botev Vratsa away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.89 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tsarsko Selo attack 1.06 + Botev Vratsa defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.48

Botev Vratsa attack 0.93 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tsarsko Selo scores more
46%
level
26%
Botev Vratsa scores more
28%

Tsarsko Selo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tsarsko Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Tsarsko Selo 1–2 Botev Vratsa

Botev Vratsa beat Tsarsko Selo 2-1 in First League on August 6, 2021.

The match was played at Tsarsko selo Complex in Sofia.