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Tsarsko Selo vs Botev Plovdiv — First League 2026

Tsarsko Selo
Tsarsko Selo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Botev Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv
5/13/2021First LeagueFirst League · Conference League Play-off Group - 3Tsarsko selo Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Tsarsko Selo37%
×Draw28%
Botev Plovdiv35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tsarsko Selo
1.22
Botev Plovdiv
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 136 away

creates per match

Tsarsko Selo
1.06
Botev Plovdiv
1.05

allows per match

Tsarsko Selo
1.29
Botev Plovdiv
1.38

finishing

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par
Botev Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tsarsko Selo ↓

Botev Plovdiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tsarsko Selo or draw
65%
Tsarsko Selo or Botev Plovdiv
72%
Draw or Botev Plovdiv
63%

Winning margin

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+
16%
Botev Plovdiv wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals
70%
Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals
34%
Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals
12%
Botev Plovdiv 1+ goals
69%
Botev Plovdiv 2+ goals
33%
Botev Plovdiv 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)
52%
Botev Plovdiv (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tsarsko Selo at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Botev Plovdiv away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.38 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tsarsko Selo attack 1.06 + Botev Plovdiv defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.22

Botev Plovdiv attack 1.05 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tsarsko Selo scores more
37%
level
28%
Botev Plovdiv scores more
35%

Tsarsko Selo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tsarsko Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
Johnathan
21'
Ivaylo Markov
58'
Viktor Genev
63'
Atanas Iliev
64'
Reda Rabeï
69'
S. Hristov← P. Louka
71'
F. Filipov← A. Chernev
74'
S. Cissé← A. Iliev
74'
S. Shokolarov← R. Rabeï
83'
L. de Sa← E. Manev
87'
K. Rossi← Anderson
88'
A. Georgiev← D. Mertens
90'
Karim Rossi
90'
Mite Cikarski
90+1'
M. Cikarski← Johnatan

Possession

56%Tsarsko

Shots

11Tsarsko

Statistics

TsarskoBotev
Overview
56%Possession44%
11Total Shots6
6Corners4
12Fouls17
Shots
11Total Shots6
5On Target3
6Off Target3
Passing
56%Possession44%
Goalkeeping
6Saves8
Discipline
12Fouls17
2Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards0
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Tsarsko Selo vs Botev Plovdiv

Tsarsko Selo and Botev Plovdiv drew 0-0 in First League on May 13, 2021.

Tsarsko Selo controlled possession (56%) and registered 11 shots to 6.

The match was played at Tsarsko selo Complex in Sofia.