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TS Galaxy vs Chippa United — Premier Soccer League 2018

TS Galaxy
TS Galaxy
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chippa United
Chippa United
12/30/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 12Mbombela Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

TS Galaxy45%
×Draw29%
Chippa United26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TS Galaxy
1.24
Chippa United
0.88

TS Galaxy creates 41% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 120 away

creates per match

TS Galaxy
1.15
Chippa United
0.82

allows per match

TS Galaxy
0.93
Chippa United
1.33

finishing

TS Galaxy+0.00on par
Chippa United+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TS Galaxy ↓

Chippa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

TS Galaxy or draw
74%
TS Galaxy or Chippa United
71%
Draw or Chippa United
55%

Winning margin

TS Galaxy wins by 2+
20%
Chippa United wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

TS Galaxy 1+ goals
71%
TS Galaxy 2+ goals
35%
TS Galaxy 3+ goals
13%
Chippa United 1+ goals
59%
Chippa United 2+ goals
22%
Chippa United 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

TS Galaxy (draw refunded)
63%
Chippa United (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TS Galaxy at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.93 · 89 matches

Chippa United away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.33 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TS Galaxy attack 1.15 + Chippa United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.24

Chippa United attack 0.82 + TS Galaxy defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

TS Galaxy scores more
45%
level
29%
Chippa United scores more
26%

TS Galaxy at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "TS Galaxy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TS Galaxy vs Chippa United

TS Galaxy beat Chippa United 2-0 in Premier Soccer League on December 30, 2023.

The match was played at Mbombela Stadium in Nelspruit.