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Trygg/Lade vs Tiller — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Trygg/Lade
Trygg/Lade
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Tiller
Tiller
8/24/20243. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 18OBOS Kunstgressbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Trygg/Lade66%
×Draw18%
Tiller16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trygg/Lade
2.54
Tiller
1.19

Trygg/Lade creates 113% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Trygg/Lade
3.00
Tiller
1.23

allows per match

Trygg/Lade
1.15
Tiller
2.08

finishing

Trygg/Lade+0.00on par
Tiller+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trygg/Lade ↓

Tiller →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Trygg/Lade or draw
84%
Trygg/Lade or Tiller
82%
Draw or Tiller
34%

Winning margin

Trygg/Lade wins by 2+
44%
Tiller wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Trygg/Lade 1+ goals
92%
Trygg/Lade 2+ goals
72%
Trygg/Lade 3+ goals
46%
Tiller 1+ goals
70%
Tiller 2+ goals
33%
Tiller 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Trygg/Lade (draw refunded)
80%
Tiller (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trygg/Lade at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Tiller away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trygg/Lade attack 3.00 + Tiller defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.54

Tiller attack 1.23 + Trygg/Lade defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Trygg/Lade scores more
66%
level
18%
Tiller scores more
16%

Trygg/Lade at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Trygg/Lade will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trygg/Lade vs Tiller

Tiller beat Trygg/Lade 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at OBOS Kunstgressbane in Trondheim.