Trygg/Lade 1–5 Kolstad: Result & Stats

Trygg/Lade

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 4

Kolstad

5/14/2022

3. Division - Girone 5 · Girone 5 - 6OBOS Kunstgressbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Trygg/Lade53%

×Draw19%

Kolstad28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trygg/LadeExpected goals in this matchKolstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.51

1.82

Trygg/Lade

2.51

Kolstad

1.82

Trygg/Lade creates 38% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 33 away

1.54

creates per match

1.73

1.92

allows per match

3.48

creates per match

Trygg/Lade

1.54

Kolstad

1.73

allows per match

Trygg/Lade

1.92

Kolstad

3.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trygg/Lade+0.00on par

Kolstad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trygg/Lade ↓

Kolstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Trygg/Lade or draw

72%

Trygg/Lade or Kolstad

81%

Draw or Kolstad

47%

Winning margin

Trygg/Lade wins by 2+

33%

Kolstad wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Trygg/Lade 1+ goals

92%

Trygg/Lade 2+ goals

71%

Trygg/Lade 3+ goals

45%

Kolstad 1+ goals

84%

Kolstad 2+ goals

54%

Kolstad 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Trygg/Lade (draw refunded)

65%

Kolstad (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trygg/Lade at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

Kolstad away — creates 1.73, concedes 3.48 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trygg/Lade attack 1.54 + Kolstad defence 3.48 → ÷2 → 2.51

Kolstad attack 1.73 + Trygg/Lade defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Trygg/Lade scores more

53%

level

19%

Kolstad scores more

28%

Trygg/Lade at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Trygg/Lade will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff