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Trygg/Lade vs Aalesund II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Trygg/Lade
Trygg/Lade
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Aalesund II
Aalesund II
6/7/20253. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 9OBOS Kunstgressbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Trygg/Lade74%
×Draw16%
Aalesund II10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trygg/Lade
2.48
Aalesund II
0.81

Trygg/Lade creates 206% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 33 away

creates per match

Trygg/Lade
3.00
Aalesund II
1.39

allows per match

Trygg/Lade
0.23
Aalesund II
1.97

finishing

Trygg/Lade+0.00on par
Aalesund II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trygg/Lade ↓

Aalesund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Trygg/Lade or draw
90%
Trygg/Lade or Aalesund II
84%
Draw or Aalesund II
26%

Winning margin

Trygg/Lade wins by 2+
51%
Aalesund II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Trygg/Lade 1+ goals
92%
Trygg/Lade 2+ goals
70%
Trygg/Lade 3+ goals
44%
Aalesund II 1+ goals
56%
Aalesund II 2+ goals
19%
Aalesund II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Trygg/Lade (draw refunded)
88%
Aalesund II (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trygg/Lade at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.23 · 13 matches

Aalesund II away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.97 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trygg/Lade attack 3.00 + Aalesund II defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.48

Aalesund II attack 1.39 + Trygg/Lade defence 0.23 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Trygg/Lade scores more
74%
level
16%
Aalesund II scores more
10%

Trygg/Lade at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Trygg/Lade will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trygg/Lade vs Aalesund II

Trygg/Lade beat Aalesund II 4-0 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on June 7, 2025.

The match was played at OBOS Kunstgressbane in Trondheim.