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Tryavna vs Spartak Pleven — Third League - Northwest 2018

Tryavna
Tryavna
FT
2 – 1
Spartak Pleven
Spartak Pleven
11/29/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 17Stadion Angel Kanchev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Tryavna16%
×Draw20%
Spartak Pleven64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tryavna
0.90
Spartak Pleven
2.06

Spartak Pleven creates 129% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 48 away

creates per match

Tryavna
1.05
Spartak Pleven
2.08

allows per match

Tryavna
2.05
Spartak Pleven
0.75

finishing

Tryavna+0.00on par
Spartak Pleven+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tryavna ↓

Spartak Pleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tryavna or draw
36%
Tryavna or Spartak Pleven
80%
Draw or Spartak Pleven
84%

Winning margin

Tryavna wins by 2+
5%
Spartak Pleven wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Tryavna 1+ goals
59%
Tryavna 2+ goals
23%
Tryavna 3+ goals
6%
Spartak Pleven 1+ goals
87%
Spartak Pleven 2+ goals
61%
Spartak Pleven 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Tryavna (draw refunded)
20%
Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tryavna at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.05 · 38 matches

Spartak Pleven away — creates 2.08, concedes 0.75 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tryavna attack 1.05 + Spartak Pleven defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.90

Spartak Pleven attack 2.08 + Tryavna defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Tryavna scores more
16%
level
20%
Spartak Pleven scores more
64%

Spartak Pleven at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Spartak Pleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tryavna vs Spartak Pleven

Tryavna beat Spartak Pleven 2-1 in Third League - Northwest on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Angel Kanchev in Tryavna.