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Tryavna vs Peshtera Galata — Third League - Northwest 2018

Tryavna
Tryavna
FT
0 – 2
Peshtera Galata
Peshtera Galata
3/31/2021Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 24Stadion Angel Kanchev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Tryavna56%
×Draw21%
Peshtera Galata24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tryavna
2.19
Peshtera Galata
1.37

Tryavna creates 60% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 29 away

creates per match

Tryavna
1.05
Peshtera Galata
0.69

allows per match

Tryavna
2.05
Peshtera Galata
3.34

finishing

Tryavna+0.00on par
Peshtera Galata+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tryavna ↓

Peshtera Galata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Tryavna or draw
76%
Tryavna or Peshtera Galata
79%
Draw or Peshtera Galata
44%

Winning margin

Tryavna wins by 2+
34%
Peshtera Galata wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tryavna 1+ goals
89%
Tryavna 2+ goals
64%
Tryavna 3+ goals
37%
Peshtera Galata 1+ goals
75%
Peshtera Galata 2+ goals
40%
Peshtera Galata 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Tryavna (draw refunded)
70%
Peshtera Galata (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tryavna at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.05 · 38 matches

Peshtera Galata away — creates 0.69, concedes 3.34 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tryavna attack 1.05 + Peshtera Galata defence 3.34 → ÷2 → 2.19

Peshtera Galata attack 0.69 + Tryavna defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Tryavna scores more
56%
level
21%
Peshtera Galata scores more
24%

Tryavna at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tryavna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Tryavna 0–2 Peshtera Galata

Peshtera Galata beat Tryavna 2-0 in Third League - Northwest on March 31, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Angel Kanchev in Tryavna.