Tryavna 2–4 OFK Levski: Result & Stats

Tryavna

FT

2 – 4

OFK Levski

4/7/2019

Third League - Northwest · Round 22Stadion Angel Kanchev (Tryavna)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Tryavna42%

×Draw24%

OFK Levski34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TryavnaExpected goals in this matchOFK Levski

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.47

Tryavna

1.67

OFK Levski

1.47

Tryavna creates 14% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 100 away

1.05

creates per match

0.90

2.05

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Tryavna

1.05

OFK Levski

0.90

allows per match

Tryavna

2.05

OFK Levski

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tryavna+0.00on par

OFK Levski+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tryavna ↓

OFK Levski →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Tryavna or draw

66%

Tryavna or OFK Levski

76%

Draw or OFK Levski

58%

Winning margin

Tryavna wins by 2+

22%

OFK Levski wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Tryavna 1+ goals

81%

Tryavna 2+ goals

50%

Tryavna 3+ goals

23%

OFK Levski 1+ goals

77%

OFK Levski 2+ goals

43%

OFK Levski 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Tryavna (draw refunded)

56%

OFK Levski (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tryavna at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.05 · 38 matches

OFK Levski away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.30 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tryavna attack 1.05 + OFK Levski defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.67

OFK Levski attack 0.90 + Tryavna defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tryavna scores more

42%

level

24%

OFK Levski scores more

34%

Tryavna at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tryavna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff