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Trutnov vs Tochovice — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Trutnov
Trutnov
FT
4 – 2
Tochovice
Tochovice
9/18/20214. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 8Stadion FK Trutnov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Trutnov55%
×Draw21%
Tochovice24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trutnov
2.12
Tochovice
1.33

Trutnov creates 59% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 15 away

creates per match

Trutnov
1.76
Tochovice
1.13

allows per match

Trutnov
1.53
Tochovice
2.47

finishing

Trutnov+0.00on par
Tochovice+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trutnov ↓

Tochovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Trutnov or draw
76%
Trutnov or Tochovice
79%
Draw or Tochovice
45%

Winning margin

Trutnov wins by 2+
33%
Tochovice wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Trutnov 1+ goals
88%
Trutnov 2+ goals
62%
Trutnov 3+ goals
35%
Tochovice 1+ goals
74%
Tochovice 2+ goals
38%
Tochovice 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Trutnov (draw refunded)
70%
Tochovice (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trutnov at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.53 · 72 matches

Tochovice away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trutnov attack 1.76 + Tochovice defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.12

Tochovice attack 1.13 + Trutnov defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Trutnov scores more
55%
level
21%
Tochovice scores more
24%

Trutnov at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Trutnov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Trutnov 4–2 Tochovice

Trutnov beat Tochovice 4-2 in 4. liga - Divizie C on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Trutnov in Trutnov.