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Trutnov vs Sparta Kutná Hora — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Trutnov
Trutnov
PST
15:00
Sparta Kutná Hora
Sparta Kutná Hora
4/19/20204. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 22Stadion FK Trutnov (Trutnov)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Trutnov69%
×Draw16%
Sparta Kutná Hora15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trutnov
2.85
Sparta Kutná Hora
1.30

Trutnov creates 119% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 27 away

creates per match

Trutnov
1.76
Sparta Kutná Hora
1.07

allows per match

Trutnov
1.53
Sparta Kutná Hora
3.93

finishing

Trutnov+0.00on par
Sparta Kutná Hora+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trutnov ↓

Sparta Kutná Hora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Trutnov or draw
85%
Trutnov or Sparta Kutná Hora
84%
Draw or Sparta Kutná Hora
31%

Winning margin

Trutnov wins by 2+
48%
Sparta Kutná Hora wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Trutnov 1+ goals
94%
Trutnov 2+ goals
77%
Trutnov 3+ goals
53%
Sparta Kutná Hora 1+ goals
73%
Sparta Kutná Hora 2+ goals
37%
Sparta Kutná Hora 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Trutnov (draw refunded)
82%
Sparta Kutná Hora (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trutnov at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.53 · 72 matches

Sparta Kutná Hora away — creates 1.07, concedes 3.93 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trutnov attack 1.76 + Sparta Kutná Hora defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 2.85

Sparta Kutná Hora attack 1.07 + Trutnov defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Trutnov scores more
69%
level
16%
Sparta Kutná Hora scores more
15%

Trutnov at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Trutnov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Trutnov host Sparta Kutná Hora

April 19, 2020: Trutnov take on Sparta Kutná Hora in 4. liga - Divizie C. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Trutnov host Sparta Kutná Hora at Stadion FK Trutnov (Trutnov).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.