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Sparta Kutná Hora vs Trutnov — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Sparta Kutná Hora
Sparta Kutná Hora
FT
1 – 2
Trutnov
Trutnov
9/21/20194. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 7Stadión Sparta ČKD Kutná Hora (Kutná Hora)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Sparta Kutná Hora40%
×Draw22%
Trutnov38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Kutná Hora
1.82
Trutnov
1.76

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 72 away

creates per match

Sparta Kutná Hora
1.54
Trutnov
1.65

allows per match

Sparta Kutná Hora
1.88
Trutnov
2.11

finishing

Sparta Kutná Hora+0.00on par
Trutnov+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Kutná Hora ↓

Trutnov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Sparta Kutná Hora or draw
62%
Sparta Kutná Hora or Trutnov
78%
Draw or Trutnov
60%

Winning margin

Sparta Kutná Hora wins by 2+
21%
Trutnov wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sparta Kutná Hora 1+ goals
84%
Sparta Kutná Hora 2+ goals
54%
Sparta Kutná Hora 3+ goals
27%
Trutnov 1+ goals
83%
Trutnov 2+ goals
52%
Trutnov 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Sparta Kutná Hora (draw refunded)
52%
Trutnov (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Kutná Hora at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

Trutnov away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.11 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Kutná Hora attack 1.54 + Trutnov defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.82

Trutnov attack 1.65 + Sparta Kutná Hora defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sparta Kutná Hora scores more
40%
level
22%
Trutnov scores more
38%

Sparta Kutná Hora at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sparta Kutná Hora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Sparta Kutná Hora 1–2 Trutnov

Trutnov beat Sparta Kutná Hora 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie C on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Stadión Sparta ČKD Kutná Hora (Kutná Hora).