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Trutnov vs Slavia Hradec Králové — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Trutnov
Trutnov
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Slavia Hradec Králové
Slavia Hradec Králové
10/20/20244. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 11UMT FK Trutnov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Trutnov51%
×Draw22%
Slavia Hradec Králové27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trutnov
1.96
Slavia Hradec Králové
1.38

Trutnov creates 42% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 22 away

creates per match

Trutnov
1.74
Slavia Hradec Králové
1.27

allows per match

Trutnov
1.49
Slavia Hradec Králové
2.18

finishing

Trutnov+0.00on par
Slavia Hradec Králové+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 65Under: 3565%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 64No: 3664%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trutnov ↓

Slavia Hradec Králové →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Trutnov or draw
73%
Trutnov or Slavia Hradec Králové
78%
Draw or Slavia Hradec Králové
49%

Winning margin

Trutnov wins by 2+
29%
Slavia Hradec Králové wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Trutnov 1+ goals
86%
Trutnov 2+ goals
58%
Trutnov 3+ goals
31%
Slavia Hradec Králové 1+ goals
75%
Slavia Hradec Králové 2+ goals
40%
Slavia Hradec Králové 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Trutnov (draw refunded)
65%
Slavia Hradec Králové (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trutnov at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.49 · 72 matches

Slavia Hradec Králové away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.18 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trutnov attack 1.74 + Slavia Hradec Králové defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.96

Slavia Hradec Králové attack 1.27 + Trutnov defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Trutnov scores more
51%
level
22%
Slavia Hradec Králové scores more
27%

Trutnov at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Trutnov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Trutnov 1–2 Slavia Hradec Králové

Slavia Hradec Králové beat Trutnov 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie C on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at UMT FK Trutnov in Trutnov.