Trutnov 0–0 Cidlina Novy Bydzov: Result & Stats

Trutnov

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cidlina Novy Bydzov

10/15/2022

4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 11UMT FK Trutnov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Trutnov47%

×Draw23%

Cidlina Novy Bydzov30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrutnovExpected goals in this matchCidlina Novy Bydzov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.42

Trutnov

1.84

Cidlina Novy Bydzov

1.42

Trutnov creates 30% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 30 away

1.76

creates per match

1.30

1.53

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Trutnov

1.76

Cidlina Novy Bydzov

1.30

allows per match

Trutnov

1.53

Cidlina Novy Bydzov

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trutnov+0.00on par

Cidlina Novy Bydzov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trutnov ↓

Cidlina Novy Bydzov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Trutnov or draw

70%

Trutnov or Cidlina Novy Bydzov

77%

Draw or Cidlina Novy Bydzov

53%

Winning margin

Trutnov wins by 2+

26%

Cidlina Novy Bydzov wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Trutnov 1+ goals

84%

Trutnov 2+ goals

55%

Trutnov 3+ goals

28%

Cidlina Novy Bydzov 1+ goals

76%

Cidlina Novy Bydzov 2+ goals

41%

Cidlina Novy Bydzov 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Trutnov (draw refunded)

61%

Cidlina Novy Bydzov (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trutnov at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.53 · 72 matches

Cidlina Novy Bydzov away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trutnov attack 1.76 + Cidlina Novy Bydzov defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.84

Cidlina Novy Bydzov attack 1.30 + Trutnov defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Trutnov scores more

47%

level

23%

Cidlina Novy Bydzov scores more

30%

Trutnov at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Trutnov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff