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Trujillo vs RCP Valverdeño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Trujillo
Trujillo
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
RCP Valverdeño
RCP Valverdeño
2/23/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 26Estadio Municipal Julián García de Guadiana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Trujillo51%
×Draw26%
RCP Valverdeño23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trujillo
1.53
RCP Valverdeño
0.94

Trujillo creates 63% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 46 away

creates per match

Trujillo
1.21
RCP Valverdeño
0.72

allows per match

Trujillo
1.16
RCP Valverdeño
1.85

finishing

Trujillo+0.00on par
RCP Valverdeño+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trujillo ↓

RCP Valverdeño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Trujillo or draw
77%
Trujillo or RCP Valverdeño
74%
Draw or RCP Valverdeño
49%

Winning margin

Trujillo wins by 2+
26%
RCP Valverdeño wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Trujillo 1+ goals
78%
Trujillo 2+ goals
45%
Trujillo 3+ goals
20%
RCP Valverdeño 1+ goals
61%
RCP Valverdeño 2+ goals
24%
RCP Valverdeño 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Trujillo (draw refunded)
69%
RCP Valverdeño (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trujillo at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.16 · 94 matches

RCP Valverdeño away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.85 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trujillo attack 1.21 + RCP Valverdeño defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.53

RCP Valverdeño attack 0.72 + Trujillo defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Trujillo scores more
51%
level
26%
RCP Valverdeño scores more
23%

Trujillo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Trujillo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Trujillo 4 – 0 RCP Valverdeño

Trujillo beat RCP Valverdeño 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Julián García de Guadiana in Trujillo.