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Trujillo vs Puebla Calzada — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Trujillo
Trujillo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Puebla Calzada
Puebla Calzada
12/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 13Estadio Municipal Julián García de Guadiana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Trujillo50%
×Draw26%
Puebla Calzada24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trujillo
1.50
Puebla Calzada
0.95

Trujillo creates 58% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 34 away

creates per match

Trujillo
1.21
Puebla Calzada
0.74

allows per match

Trujillo
1.16
Puebla Calzada
1.79

finishing

Trujillo+0.00on par
Puebla Calzada+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trujillo ↓

Puebla Calzada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Trujillo or draw
76%
Trujillo or Puebla Calzada
74%
Draw or Puebla Calzada
50%

Winning margin

Trujillo wins by 2+
25%
Puebla Calzada wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Trujillo 1+ goals
78%
Trujillo 2+ goals
44%
Trujillo 3+ goals
19%
Puebla Calzada 1+ goals
61%
Puebla Calzada 2+ goals
25%
Puebla Calzada 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Trujillo (draw refunded)
68%
Puebla Calzada (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trujillo at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.16 · 94 matches

Puebla Calzada away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trujillo attack 1.21 + Puebla Calzada defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.50

Puebla Calzada attack 0.74 + Trujillo defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Trujillo scores more
50%
level
26%
Puebla Calzada scores more
24%

Trujillo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Trujillo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Trujillo 0 – 1 Puebla Calzada

Puebla Calzada beat Trujillo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Julián García de Guadiana in Trujillo.