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Trujillo vs Fuente Cantos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Trujillo
Trujillo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fuente Cantos
Fuente Cantos
3/19/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 25Estadio Municipal Julián García de Guadiana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Trujillo47%
×Draw27%
Fuente Cantos27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trujillo
1.44
Fuente Cantos
1.02

Trujillo creates 41% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 61 away

creates per match

Trujillo
1.21
Fuente Cantos
0.89

allows per match

Trujillo
1.16
Fuente Cantos
1.67

finishing

Trujillo+0.00on par
Fuente Cantos+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trujillo ↓

Fuente Cantos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Trujillo or draw
73%
Trujillo or Fuente Cantos
73%
Draw or Fuente Cantos
53%

Winning margin

Trujillo wins by 2+
23%
Fuente Cantos wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Trujillo 1+ goals
76%
Trujillo 2+ goals
42%
Trujillo 3+ goals
18%
Fuente Cantos 1+ goals
64%
Fuente Cantos 2+ goals
27%
Fuente Cantos 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Trujillo (draw refunded)
64%
Fuente Cantos (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trujillo at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.16 · 94 matches

Fuente Cantos away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.67 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trujillo attack 1.21 + Fuente Cantos defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

Fuente Cantos attack 0.89 + Trujillo defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Trujillo scores more
47%
level
27%
Fuente Cantos scores more
27%

Trujillo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Trujillo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Trujillo 0–0 Fuente Cantos

Trujillo and Fuente Cantos drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Julián García de Guadiana in Trujillo.