Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Trujillo vs Extremadura 1924 — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Trujillo
Trujillo
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Extremadura 1924
Extremadura 1924
4/6/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 29Estadio Municipal Julián García de Guadiana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Trujillo28%
×Draw30%
Extremadura 192443%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trujillo
0.90
Extremadura 1924
1.20

Extremadura 1924 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 17 away

creates per match

Trujillo
1.21
Extremadura 1924
1.24

allows per match

Trujillo
1.16
Extremadura 1924
0.59

finishing

Trujillo+0.00on par
Extremadura 1924+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trujillo ↓

Extremadura 1924 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Trujillo or draw
57%
Trujillo or Extremadura 1924
70%
Draw or Extremadura 1924
72%

Winning margin

Trujillo wins by 2+
9%
Extremadura 1924 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Trujillo 1+ goals
59%
Trujillo 2+ goals
23%
Trujillo 3+ goals
6%
Extremadura 1924 1+ goals
70%
Extremadura 1924 2+ goals
34%
Extremadura 1924 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Trujillo (draw refunded)
39%
Extremadura 1924 (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trujillo at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.16 · 94 matches

Extremadura 1924 away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trujillo attack 1.21 + Extremadura 1924 defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.90

Extremadura 1924 attack 1.24 + Trujillo defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Trujillo scores more
28%
level
30%
Extremadura 1924 scores more
43%

Extremadura 1924 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Extremadura 1924 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Trujillo 0 – 4 Extremadura 1924

Extremadura 1924 beat Trujillo 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Julián García de Guadiana in Trujillo.