Trujillo 1–1 Don Álvaro: Result & Stats

Trujillo

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Don Álvaro

1/23/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 17Estadio Municipal Julián García de Guadiana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Trujillo52%

×Draw26%

Don Álvaro23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrujilloExpected goals in this matchDon Álvaro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.94

Trujillo

1.55

Don Álvaro

0.94

Trujillo creates 65% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 47 away

1.21

creates per match

0.72

1.16

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Trujillo

1.21

Don Álvaro

0.72

allows per match

Trujillo

1.16

Don Álvaro

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trujillo+0.00on par

Don Álvaro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trujillo ↓

Don Álvaro →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Trujillo or draw

77%

Trujillo or Don Álvaro

74%

Draw or Don Álvaro

48%

Winning margin

Trujillo wins by 2+

27%

Don Álvaro wins by 2+

Team goals

Trujillo 1+ goals

79%

Trujillo 2+ goals

46%

Trujillo 3+ goals

20%

Don Álvaro 1+ goals

61%

Don Álvaro 2+ goals

24%

Don Álvaro 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Trujillo (draw refunded)

69%

Don Álvaro (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Trujillo at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.16 · 94 matches

Don Álvaro away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.89 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Trujillo attack 1.21 + Don Álvaro defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.55

Don Álvaro attack 0.72 + Trujillo defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Trujillo scores more

52%

level

26%

Don Álvaro scores more

23%

Trujillo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Trujillo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff