Trujillo 3–1 Chinato: Result & Stats

Trujillo

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Chinato

5/2/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 2nd Phase - 6Estadio Municipal Julián García de Guadiana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Trujillo54%

×Draw24%

Chinato21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrujilloExpected goals in this matchChinato

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.94

Trujillo

1.67

Chinato

0.94

Trujillo creates 78% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 15 away

1.21

creates per match

0.73

1.16

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Trujillo

1.21

Chinato

0.73

allows per match

Trujillo

1.16

Chinato

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trujillo+0.00on par

Chinato+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trujillo ↓

Chinato →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Trujillo or draw

79%

Trujillo or Chinato

76%

Draw or Chinato

46%

Winning margin

Trujillo wins by 2+

30%

Chinato wins by 2+

Team goals

Trujillo 1+ goals

81%

Trujillo 2+ goals

50%

Trujillo 3+ goals

23%

Chinato 1+ goals

61%

Chinato 2+ goals

24%

Chinato 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Trujillo (draw refunded)

72%

Chinato (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Trujillo at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.16 · 94 matches

Chinato away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Trujillo attack 1.21 + Chinato defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.67

Chinato attack 0.73 + Trujillo defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Trujillo scores more

54%

level

24%

Chinato scores more

21%

Trujillo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Trujillo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff