Trujillo 1–0 Badajoz II: Result & Stats

Trujillo

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Badajoz II

4/24/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 30Estadio Municipal Julián García de Guadiana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Trujillo41%

×Draw30%

Badajoz II29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrujilloExpected goals in this matchBadajoz II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.94

Trujillo

1.17

Badajoz II

0.94

Trujillo creates 24% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 15 away

1.21

creates per match

0.73

1.16

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Trujillo

1.21

Badajoz II

0.73

allows per match

Trujillo

1.16

Badajoz II

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trujillo+0.00on par

Badajoz II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trujillo ↓

Badajoz II →

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Trujillo or draw

71%

Trujillo or Badajoz II

70%

Draw or Badajoz II

59%

Winning margin

Trujillo wins by 2+

18%

Badajoz II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Trujillo 1+ goals

69%

Trujillo 2+ goals

33%

Trujillo 3+ goals

11%

Badajoz II 1+ goals

61%

Badajoz II 2+ goals

24%

Badajoz II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Trujillo (draw refunded)

58%

Badajoz II (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Trujillo at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.16 · 94 matches

Badajoz II away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Trujillo attack 1.21 + Badajoz II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Badajoz II attack 0.73 + Trujillo defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Trujillo scores more

41%

level

30%

Badajoz II scores more

29%

Trujillo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Trujillo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff