Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Trujillo vs Atlético Pueblonuevo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Trujillo
Trujillo
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Atlético Pueblonuevo
Atlético Pueblonuevo
4/20/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 31Estadio Municipal Julián García de Guadiana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Trujillo53%
×Draw24%
Atlético Pueblonuevo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trujillo
1.66
Atlético Pueblonuevo
1.00

Trujillo creates 66% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 66 away

creates per match

Trujillo
1.21
Atlético Pueblonuevo
0.85

allows per match

Trujillo
1.16
Atlético Pueblonuevo
2.11

finishing

Trujillo+0.00on par
Atlético Pueblonuevo+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trujillo ↓

Atlético Pueblonuevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Trujillo or draw
77%
Trujillo or Atlético Pueblonuevo
76%
Draw or Atlético Pueblonuevo
47%

Winning margin

Trujillo wins by 2+
28%
Atlético Pueblonuevo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Trujillo 1+ goals
81%
Trujillo 2+ goals
49%
Trujillo 3+ goals
23%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 1+ goals
63%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 2+ goals
26%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Trujillo (draw refunded)
70%
Atlético Pueblonuevo (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trujillo at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.16 · 94 matches

Atlético Pueblonuevo away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.11 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trujillo attack 1.21 + Atlético Pueblonuevo defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.66

Atlético Pueblonuevo attack 0.85 + Trujillo defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Trujillo scores more
53%
level
24%
Atlético Pueblonuevo scores more
23%

Trujillo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Trujillo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trujillo vs Atlético Pueblonuevo

Atlético Pueblonuevo beat Trujillo 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on April 20, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Julián García de Guadiana in Trujillo.