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Trujillanos FC vs Atletico Venezuela — Primera División 2018

Trujillanos FC
Trujillanos FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Venezuela
Atletico Venezuela
12/1/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Group A - 15Complejo Deportivo Socialista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Trujillanos FC34%
×Draw27%
Atletico Venezuela39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trujillanos FC
1.23
Atletico Venezuela
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 60 away

creates per match

Trujillanos FC
0.94
Atletico Venezuela
1.03

allows per match

Trujillanos FC
1.64
Atletico Venezuela
1.53

finishing

Trujillanos FC+0.00on par
Atletico Venezuela+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trujillanos FC ↓

Atletico Venezuela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Trujillanos FC or draw
61%
Trujillanos FC or Atletico Venezuela
73%
Draw or Atletico Venezuela
66%

Winning margin

Trujillanos FC wins by 2+
15%
Atletico Venezuela wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Trujillanos FC 1+ goals
71%
Trujillanos FC 2+ goals
35%
Trujillanos FC 3+ goals
13%
Atletico Venezuela 1+ goals
74%
Atletico Venezuela 2+ goals
38%
Atletico Venezuela 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Trujillanos FC (draw refunded)
47%
Atletico Venezuela (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trujillanos FC at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.64 · 67 matches

Atletico Venezuela away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trujillanos FC attack 0.94 + Atletico Venezuela defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.23

Atletico Venezuela attack 1.03 + Trujillanos FC defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Trujillanos FC scores more
34%
level
27%
Atletico Venezuela scores more
39%

Atletico Venezuela at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atletico Venezuela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Trujillanos FC 1–0 Atletico Venezuela

Trujillanos FC beat Atletico Venezuela 1-0 in Primera División on December 1, 2020.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Socialista in Puerto Cabello.