Trujillanos FC 2–0 Atletico el Vigia FC

Trujillanos FC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Atletico el Vigia FC

7/13/2025

Segunda División · Apertura - 15Estadio José Alberto Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Trujillanos FC54%

×Draw25%

Atletico el Vigia FC21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trujillanos FCExpected goals in this matchAtletico el Vigia FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.87

Trujillanos FC

1.57

Atletico el Vigia FC

0.87

Trujillanos FC creates 80% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 104 away

1.43

creates per match

0.97

0.77

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Trujillanos FC

1.43

Atletico el Vigia FC

0.97

allows per match

Trujillanos FC

0.77

Atletico el Vigia FC

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trujillanos FC+0.00on par

Atletico el Vigia FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trujillanos FC ↓

Atletico el Vigia FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Trujillanos FC or draw

79%

Trujillanos FC or Atletico el Vigia FC

75%

Draw or Atletico el Vigia FC

46%

Winning margin

Trujillanos FC wins by 2+

28%

Atletico el Vigia FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Trujillanos FC 1+ goals

79%

Trujillanos FC 2+ goals

46%

Trujillanos FC 3+ goals

21%

Atletico el Vigia FC 1+ goals

58%

Atletico el Vigia FC 2+ goals

22%

Atletico el Vigia FC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Trujillanos FC (draw refunded)

72%

Atletico el Vigia FC (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trujillanos FC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.77 · 56 matches

Atletico el Vigia FC away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.72 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trujillanos FC attack 1.43 + Atletico el Vigia FC defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.57

Atletico el Vigia FC attack 0.97 + Trujillanos FC defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Trujillanos FC scores more

54%

level

25%

Atletico el Vigia FC scores more

21%

Trujillanos FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Trujillanos FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff