True Democracy 2–1 Okwawu: Result & Stats

True Democracy

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Okwawu

10/10/2025

Division One League · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

True Democracy51%

×Draw27%

Okwawu22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

True DemocracyExpected goals in this matchOkwawu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.83

True Democracy

1.43

Okwawu

0.83

True Democracy creates 72% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.33

creates per match

0.93

0.73

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

True Democracy

1.33

Okwawu

0.93

allows per match

True Democracy

0.73

Okwawu

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

True Democracy+0.00on par

Okwawu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

True Democracy ↓

Okwawu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

True Democracy or draw

78%

True Democracy or Okwawu

73%

Draw or Okwawu

49%

Winning margin

True Democracy wins by 2+

25%

Okwawu wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

True Democracy 1+ goals

76%

True Democracy 2+ goals

42%

True Democracy 3+ goals

17%

Okwawu 1+ goals

56%

Okwawu 2+ goals

20%

Okwawu 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

True Democracy (draw refunded)

70%

Okwawu (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

True Democracy at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Okwawu away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

True Democracy attack 1.33 + Okwawu defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.43

Okwawu attack 0.93 + True Democracy defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

True Democracy scores more

51%

level

27%

Okwawu scores more

22%

True Democracy at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "True Democracy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff