True Democracy 1–1 Nania: Result & Stats

True Democracy

FT

1 – 1

Nania

11/2/2025

Division One League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

True Democracy48%

×Draw31%

Nania21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

True DemocracyExpected goals in this matchNania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.67

True Democracy

1.17

Nania

0.67

True Democracy creates 75% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.33

creates per match

0.60

0.73

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

True Democracy

1.33

Nania

0.60

allows per match

True Democracy

0.73

Nania

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

True Democracy+0.00on par

Nania+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

True Democracy ↓

Nania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

True Democracy or draw

79%

True Democracy or Nania

69%

Draw or Nania

52%

Winning margin

True Democracy wins by 2+

21%

Nania wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

True Democracy 1+ goals

69%

True Democracy 2+ goals

33%

True Democracy 3+ goals

11%

Nania 1+ goals

49%

Nania 2+ goals

15%

Nania 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

True Democracy (draw refunded)

69%

Nania (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

True Democracy at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Nania away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

True Democracy attack 1.33 + Nania defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Nania attack 0.60 + True Democracy defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

True Democracy scores more

48%

level

31%

Nania scores more

21%

True Democracy at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "True Democracy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff