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True Democracy vs Hakla SC — Division One League 2025

True Democracy
True Democracy
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Hakla SC
Hakla SC
4/26/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

True Democracy47%
×Draw28%
Hakla SC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

True Democracy
1.36
Hakla SC
0.93

True Democracy creates 46% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

True Democracy
1.33
Hakla SC
1.13

allows per match

True Democracy
0.73
Hakla SC
1.40

finishing

True Democracy+0.00on par
Hakla SC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

True Democracy ↓

Hakla SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

True Democracy or draw
74%
True Democracy or Hakla SC
72%
Draw or Hakla SC
53%

Winning margin

True Democracy wins by 2+
22%
Hakla SC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

True Democracy 1+ goals
74%
True Democracy 2+ goals
39%
True Democracy 3+ goals
16%
Hakla SC 1+ goals
61%
Hakla SC 2+ goals
24%
Hakla SC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

True Democracy (draw refunded)
65%
Hakla SC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

True Democracy at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Hakla SC away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

True Democracy attack 1.33 + Hakla SC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Hakla SC attack 1.13 + True Democracy defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

True Democracy scores more
47%
level
28%
Hakla SC scores more
26%

True Democracy at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "True Democracy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: True Democracy 3–2 Hakla SC

True Democracy beat Hakla SC 3-2 in Division One League on April 26, 2026.