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True Democracy vs Great Olympics — Division One League 2025

True Democracy
True Democracy
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Great Olympics
Great Olympics
3/22/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

True Democracy44%
×Draw33%
Great Olympics23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

True Democracy
1.06
Great Olympics
0.67

True Democracy creates 58% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

True Democracy
1.33
Great Olympics
0.60

allows per match

True Democracy
0.73
Great Olympics
0.80

finishing

True Democracy+0.00on par
Great Olympics+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

True Democracy ↓

Great Olympics →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

True Democracy or draw
77%
True Democracy or Great Olympics
67%
Draw or Great Olympics
56%

Winning margin

True Democracy wins by 2+
18%
Great Olympics wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

True Democracy 1+ goals
65%
True Democracy 2+ goals
29%
True Democracy 3+ goals
9%
Great Olympics 1+ goals
49%
Great Olympics 2+ goals
15%
Great Olympics 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

True Democracy (draw refunded)
66%
Great Olympics (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

True Democracy at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Great Olympics away — creates 0.60, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

True Democracy attack 1.33 + Great Olympics defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Great Olympics attack 0.60 + True Democracy defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

True Democracy scores more
44%
level
33%
Great Olympics scores more
23%

True Democracy at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "True Democracy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: True Democracy 0–1 Great Olympics

Great Olympics beat True Democracy 1-0 in Division One League on March 22, 2026.