Trstenik PPT 1–1 Pčinja Trgovište: Result & Stats

Trstenik PPT

FT

1 – 1

Pčinja Trgovište

3/17/2021

Srpska Liga - East · East - 22Stadion SC Trstenik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Trstenik PPT53%

×Draw24%

Pčinja Trgovište23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trstenik PPTExpected goals in this matchPčinja Trgovište

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.06

Trstenik PPT

1.75

Pčinja Trgovište

1.06

Trstenik PPT creates 65% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 63 away

1.63

creates per match

1.11

1.02

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Trstenik PPT

1.63

Pčinja Trgovište

1.11

allows per match

Trstenik PPT

1.02

Pčinja Trgovište

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trstenik PPT+0.00on par

Pčinja Trgovište+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trstenik PPT ↓

Pčinja Trgovište →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Trstenik PPT or draw

77%

Trstenik PPT or Pčinja Trgovište

76%

Draw or Pčinja Trgovište

47%

Winning margin

Trstenik PPT wins by 2+

30%

Pčinja Trgovište wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Trstenik PPT 1+ goals

83%

Trstenik PPT 2+ goals

52%

Trstenik PPT 3+ goals

25%

Pčinja Trgovište 1+ goals

65%

Pčinja Trgovište 2+ goals

29%

Pčinja Trgovište 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Trstenik PPT (draw refunded)

70%

Pčinja Trgovište (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trstenik PPT at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.02 · 56 matches

Pčinja Trgovište away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.87 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trstenik PPT attack 1.63 + Pčinja Trgovište defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.75

Pčinja Trgovište attack 1.11 + Trstenik PPT defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Trstenik PPT scores more

53%

level

24%

Pčinja Trgovište scores more

23%

Trstenik PPT at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Trstenik PPT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trstenik PPT vs Pčinja Trgovište

Trstenik PPT and Pčinja Trgovište drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - East on March 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion SC Trstenik in Trstenik.

Trstenik PPT vs Pčinja Trgovište — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Trstenik PPT vs Pčinja Trgovište