Trstenik PPT 1–0 Budućnost Popovac: Result & Stats

Trstenik PPT

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Budućnost Popovac

10/19/2024

Srpska Liga - East · East - 11Stadion SC Trstenik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Trstenik PPT45%

×Draw25%

Budućnost Popovac30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trstenik PPTExpected goals in this matchBudućnost Popovac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.21

Trstenik PPT

1.54

Budućnost Popovac

1.21

Trstenik PPT creates 27% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 87 away

1.63

creates per match

1.40

1.02

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Trstenik PPT

1.63

Budućnost Popovac

1.40

allows per match

Trstenik PPT

1.02

Budućnost Popovac

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trstenik PPT+0.00on par

Budućnost Popovac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trstenik PPT ↓

Budućnost Popovac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Trstenik PPT or draw

70%

Trstenik PPT or Budućnost Popovac

75%

Draw or Budućnost Popovac

55%

Winning margin

Trstenik PPT wins by 2+

23%

Budućnost Popovac wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Trstenik PPT 1+ goals

79%

Trstenik PPT 2+ goals

45%

Trstenik PPT 3+ goals

20%

Budućnost Popovac 1+ goals

70%

Budućnost Popovac 2+ goals

34%

Budućnost Popovac 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Trstenik PPT (draw refunded)

60%

Budućnost Popovac (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trstenik PPT at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.02 · 56 matches

Budućnost Popovac away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.45 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trstenik PPT attack 1.63 + Budućnost Popovac defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.54

Budućnost Popovac attack 1.40 + Trstenik PPT defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Trstenik PPT scores more

45%

level

25%

Budućnost Popovac scores more

30%

Trstenik PPT at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Trstenik PPT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff