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Trostianets vs Rukh Vynnyky II — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Trostianets
Trostianets
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Rukh Vynnyky II
Rukh Vynnyky II
9/3/2023Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Round 5Stadion imeni V. Kutsa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Trostianets43%
×Draw27%
Rukh Vynnyky II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trostianets
1.36
Rukh Vynnyky II
1.09

Trostianets creates 25% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 22 away

creates per match

Trostianets
1.58
Rukh Vynnyky II
1.18

allows per match

Trostianets
1.00
Rukh Vynnyky II
1.14

finishing

Trostianets+0.00on par
Rukh Vynnyky II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trostianets ↓

Rukh Vynnyky II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Trostianets or draw
70%
Trostianets or Rukh Vynnyky II
73%
Draw or Rukh Vynnyky II
57%

Winning margin

Trostianets wins by 2+
20%
Rukh Vynnyky II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Trostianets 1+ goals
74%
Trostianets 2+ goals
39%
Trostianets 3+ goals
16%
Rukh Vynnyky II 1+ goals
66%
Rukh Vynnyky II 2+ goals
30%
Rukh Vynnyky II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Trostianets (draw refunded)
59%
Rukh Vynnyky II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trostianets at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

Rukh Vynnyky II away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trostianets attack 1.58 + Rukh Vynnyky II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.36

Rukh Vynnyky II attack 1.18 + Trostianets defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Trostianets scores more
43%
level
27%
Rukh Vynnyky II scores more
30%

Trostianets at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Trostianets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group A: Trostianets 3–0 Rukh Vynnyky II

Trostianets beat Rukh Vynnyky II 3-0 in Druha Liga - Group A on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion imeni V. Kutsa in Trostianets.