Trostianets 0–1 Metalurh Zaporizhya II

Trostianets

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Metalurh Zaporizhya II

8/6/2023

Druha Liga - Group A · Round 1Stadion imeni V. Kutsa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Trostianets58%

×Draw22%

Metalurh Zaporizhya II20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrostianetsExpected goals in this matchMetalurh Zaporizhya II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.00

Trostianets

1.89

Metalurh Zaporizhya II

1.00

Trostianets creates 89% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 20 away

1.58

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Trostianets

1.58

Metalurh Zaporizhya II

1.00

allows per match

Trostianets

1.00

Metalurh Zaporizhya II

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trostianets+0.00on par

Metalurh Zaporizhya II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trostianets ↓

Metalurh Zaporizhya II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Trostianets or draw

80%

Trostianets or Metalurh Zaporizhya II

78%

Draw or Metalurh Zaporizhya II

42%

Winning margin

Trostianets wins by 2+

34%

Metalurh Zaporizhya II wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Trostianets 1+ goals

85%

Trostianets 2+ goals

56%

Trostianets 3+ goals

29%

Metalurh Zaporizhya II 1+ goals

63%

Metalurh Zaporizhya II 2+ goals

26%

Metalurh Zaporizhya II 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Trostianets (draw refunded)

75%

Metalurh Zaporizhya II (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trostianets at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

Metalurh Zaporizhya II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trostianets attack 1.58 + Metalurh Zaporizhya II defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.89

Metalurh Zaporizhya II attack 1.00 + Trostianets defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Trostianets scores more

58%

level

22%

Metalurh Zaporizhya II scores more

20%

Trostianets at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Trostianets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff