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Trosa-Vagnhärad SK vs Tyresö — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
FT
7 – 0
Tyresö
Tyresö
6/19/2021Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 15Häradsvallen A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK58%
×Draw19%
Tyresö23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
2.50
Tyresö
1.54

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK creates 62% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

creates per match

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
1.85
Tyresö
1.21

allows per match

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
1.88
Tyresö
3.15

finishing

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK+0.00on par
Tyresö+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK ↓

Tyresö →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK or draw
77%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK or Tyresö
81%
Draw or Tyresö
42%

Winning margin

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK wins by 2+
37%
Tyresö wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 1+ goals
92%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 2+ goals
71%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 3+ goals
45%
Tyresö 1+ goals
79%
Tyresö 2+ goals
45%
Tyresö 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK (draw refunded)
72%
Tyresö (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.88 · 33 matches

Tyresö away — creates 1.21, concedes 3.15 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK attack 1.85 + Tyresö defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.50

Tyresö attack 1.21 + Trosa-Vagnhärad SK defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK scores more
58%
level
19%
Tyresö scores more
23%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Trosa-Vagnhärad SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trosa-Vagnhärad SK vs Tyresö

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK beat Tyresö 7-0 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on June 19, 2021.

The match was played at Häradsvallen A in Vagnhärad.