Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 1–2 Motala: Result & Stats

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

FT

1 – 2

Motala

11/6/2021

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 6Häradsvallen KG

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK33%

×Draw22%

Motala44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trosa-Vagnhärad SKExpected goals in this matchMotala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.85

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

1.57

Motala

1.85

Motala creates 18% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 28 away

1.85

creates per match

1.82

1.88

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

1.85

Motala

1.82

allows per match

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

1.88

Motala

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK+0.00on par

Motala+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK ↓

Motala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK or draw

56%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK or Motala

78%

Draw or Motala

67%

Winning margin

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK wins by 2+

16%

Motala wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 1+ goals

79%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 2+ goals

46%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 3+ goals

21%

Motala 1+ goals

84%

Motala 2+ goals

55%

Motala 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK (draw refunded)

43%

Motala (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.88 · 33 matches

Motala away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK attack 1.85 + Motala defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.57

Motala attack 1.82 + Trosa-Vagnhärad SK defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK scores more

33%

level

22%

Motala scores more

44%

Motala at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Motala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff