Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 4–2 Mjölby: Result & Stats

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

FT

4 – 2

Mjölby

11/20/2021

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 8Häradsvallen KG

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK52%

×Draw21%

Mjölby27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trosa-Vagnhärad SKExpected goals in this matchMjölby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.55

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

2.19

Mjölby

1.55

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK creates 41% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 40 away

1.85

creates per match

1.23

1.88

allows per match

2.52

creates per match

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

1.85

Mjölby

1.23

allows per match

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

1.88

Mjölby

2.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK+0.00on par

Mjölby+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK ↓

Mjölby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK or draw

73%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK or Mjölby

79%

Draw or Mjölby

48%

Winning margin

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK wins by 2+

31%

Mjölby wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 1+ goals

89%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 2+ goals

64%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 3+ goals

37%

Mjölby 1+ goals

79%

Mjölby 2+ goals

46%

Mjölby 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK (draw refunded)

66%

Mjölby (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.88 · 33 matches

Mjölby away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.52 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK attack 1.85 + Mjölby defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.19

Mjölby attack 1.23 + Trosa-Vagnhärad SK defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK scores more

52%

level

21%

Mjölby scores more

27%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Trosa-Vagnhärad SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff