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Trosa-Vagnhärad SK vs Atvidabergs FF — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
FT
1 – 3
Atvidabergs FF
Atvidabergs FF
9/12/2020Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 8Häradsvallen A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK30%
×Draw22%
Atvidabergs FF48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
1.53
Atvidabergs FF
1.98

Atvidabergs FF creates 29% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

creates per match

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
1.85
Atvidabergs FF
2.09

allows per match

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
1.88
Atvidabergs FF
1.21

finishing

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK+0.00on par
Atvidabergs FF+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK ↓

Atvidabergs FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK or draw
52%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK or Atvidabergs FF
78%
Draw or Atvidabergs FF
70%

Winning margin

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK wins by 2+
14%
Atvidabergs FF wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 1+ goals
78%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 2+ goals
45%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 3+ goals
20%
Atvidabergs FF 1+ goals
86%
Atvidabergs FF 2+ goals
59%
Atvidabergs FF 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK (draw refunded)
38%
Atvidabergs FF (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.88 · 33 matches

Atvidabergs FF away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK attack 1.85 + Atvidabergs FF defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.53

Atvidabergs FF attack 2.09 + Trosa-Vagnhärad SK defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK scores more
30%
level
22%
Atvidabergs FF scores more
48%

Atvidabergs FF at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atvidabergs FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Svealand: Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 1–3 Atvidabergs FF

Atvidabergs FF beat Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 3-1 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at Häradsvallen A in Vagnhärad.